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Against all odds: multicriteria decision making with hazard prediction maps depicting uncertainty


Kübler, Isabella; Richter, Kai-Florian; Fabrikant, Sara I (2019). Against all odds: multicriteria decision making with hazard prediction maps depicting uncertainty. American Association of Geographers. Annals:Epub ahead of print.

Abstract

We report on a multicriteria decision-making study where participants were asked to purchase a house shown on maps that include hazard prediction information. We find that participants decided to buy different houses, depending on whether uncertainty is shown on the map display and on the type of uncertainty visualization (i.e., varying color value, focus, or texture). We also find that participants’ individual differences with respect to their assessed risk-taking behavior influences their spatial decision making with maps. Risk-takers seem to underestimate the dangers of natural hazards when prediction uncertainties are depicted. We are thus able to shed additional light on how people use visualized uncertainty information to make complex map-based decisions. We can demonstrate that not only are design characteristics relevant for map-based reasoning and decision-making outcomes but so are the decision makers’ individual background and the map-based decision-making context.

Abstract

We report on a multicriteria decision-making study where participants were asked to purchase a house shown on maps that include hazard prediction information. We find that participants decided to buy different houses, depending on whether uncertainty is shown on the map display and on the type of uncertainty visualization (i.e., varying color value, focus, or texture). We also find that participants’ individual differences with respect to their assessed risk-taking behavior influences their spatial decision making with maps. Risk-takers seem to underestimate the dangers of natural hazards when prediction uncertainties are depicted. We are thus able to shed additional light on how people use visualized uncertainty information to make complex map-based decisions. We can demonstrate that not only are design characteristics relevant for map-based reasoning and decision-making outcomes but so are the decision makers’ individual background and the map-based decision-making context.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Uncontrolled Keywords:Earth-Surface Processes, Geography, Planning and Development
Language:English
Date:23 September 2019
Deposited On:20 Nov 2019 15:15
Last Modified:20 Nov 2019 15:17
Publisher:Routledge
ISSN:2469-4452
OA Status:Hybrid
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2019.1644992

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