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Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models


Miftakhova, Alena; Judd, Kenneth L; Lontzek, Thomas S; Schmedders, Karl (2020). Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models. Journal of Econometrics, 214(1):67-80.

Abstract

We propose a general emulation method for constructing low-dimensional approximations of complex dynamic climate models. Our method uses artificially designed uncorrelated CO2 emissions scenarios, which are much better suited for the construction of an emulator than are conventional emissions scenarios. We apply our method to the climate model MAGICC to approximate the impact of emissions on global temperature. Comparing the temperature forecasts of MAGICC and our emulator, we show that the average relative out-of-sample forecast errors in the low-dimensional emulation models are below 2%. Our emulator offers an avenue to merge modern macroeconomic models with complex dynamic climate models.

Abstract

We propose a general emulation method for constructing low-dimensional approximations of complex dynamic climate models. Our method uses artificially designed uncorrelated CO2 emissions scenarios, which are much better suited for the construction of an emulator than are conventional emissions scenarios. We apply our method to the climate model MAGICC to approximate the impact of emissions on global temperature. Comparing the temperature forecasts of MAGICC and our emulator, we show that the average relative out-of-sample forecast errors in the low-dimensional emulation models are below 2%. Our emulator offers an avenue to merge modern macroeconomic models with complex dynamic climate models.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Business Administration
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:January 2020
Deposited On:20 Dec 2019 12:30
Last Modified:20 Dec 2019 12:39
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0304-4076
OA Status:Green
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.005
Related URLs:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407619301083?via%3Dihub (Publisher)
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:18847

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