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Hydrological impacts of climate change in northern Tunisia


Dakhlaoui, Hamouda; Seibert, Jan; Hakala, Kirsti (2019). Hydrological impacts of climate change in northern Tunisia. In: Chaminé, H I; Barbieri, M; Kisi, O; Chen, M; Merkel, B J. Advances in sustainable and environmental hydrology, hydrogeology, hydrochemistry and water resources. Cham (CH): Springer, 301-303.

Abstract

Tunisia is a water-stressed country, which derives most ofits surface water from its northern regions. GivenNorthern Tunisia’s role as a water provider, this studyinvestigated the hydrological impacts of climate changeonfive catchments located in this region. Three hydro-logical models are considered: HBV, GR4, andIHACRES. Climate projections were derived from elevenhigh-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate mod-els (forced by general circulation models; GCM-RCMs).A quantile mapping (QM) bias correction method wasapplied to correct the climate simulations. Historicalstreamflow simulations (1970–2000), achieved by forcingthe hydrological models with GCM-RCM precipitationand temperature, werefirst assessed in order to select themost realistic GCM-RCMs for future projections. Theremaining bias corrected GCM-RCMs were then used toforce the hydrological models in order to achieveprojections of streamflow. The evaluation of the stream-flow projections was conducted over two time periods(i) mid-term: 2040–2070 and (ii) long-term: 2070–2100to identify the magnitude of the projected change ofstreamflow under the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5. The hydrological projections were analyzed accord-ing to several metrics commonly used by water managers.

Abstract

Tunisia is a water-stressed country, which derives most ofits surface water from its northern regions. GivenNorthern Tunisia’s role as a water provider, this studyinvestigated the hydrological impacts of climate changeonfive catchments located in this region. Three hydro-logical models are considered: HBV, GR4, andIHACRES. Climate projections were derived from elevenhigh-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate mod-els (forced by general circulation models; GCM-RCMs).A quantile mapping (QM) bias correction method wasapplied to correct the climate simulations. Historicalstreamflow simulations (1970–2000), achieved by forcingthe hydrological models with GCM-RCM precipitationand temperature, werefirst assessed in order to select themost realistic GCM-RCMs for future projections. Theremaining bias corrected GCM-RCMs were then used toforce the hydrological models in order to achieveprojections of streamflow. The evaluation of the stream-flow projections was conducted over two time periods(i) mid-term: 2040–2070 and (ii) long-term: 2070–2100to identify the magnitude of the projected change ofstreamflow under the climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5. The hydrological projections were analyzed accord-ing to several metrics commonly used by water managers.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Book Section, not_refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Language:English
Date:1 January 2019
Deposited On:13 Mar 2020 13:49
Last Modified:24 Mar 2020 09:54
Publisher:Springer
ISBN:978-3-030-01571-8
Additional Information:Proceedings of the 1st Springer Conference of the Arabian Journal of Geosciences (CAJG-1), Tunisia 2018
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01572-5_71

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