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Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments


Sikorska-Senoner, Anna E; Seibert, Jan (2020). Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65(8):1281-1299.

Abstract

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.

Abstract

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Scopus Subject Areas:Physical Sciences > Water Science and Technology
Uncontrolled Keywords:Water Science and Technology
Language:English
Date:10 June 2020
Deposited On:27 May 2020 09:23
Last Modified:29 Jul 2020 15:13
Publisher:Taylor & Francis
ISSN:0262-6667
OA Status:Closed
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1749761

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