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Conditional nationally determined contributions in the Paris Agreement: foothold for equity or achilles heel?


Pauw, W Pieter; Castro, Paula; Pickering, Jonathan; Bhasin, Shikha (2020). Conditional nationally determined contributions in the Paris Agreement: foothold for equity or achilles heel? Climate Policy, 20(4):468-484.

Abstract

The Paris Agreement’s success depends on parties’ implementation of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) towards the Paris Agreement’s goals. In these climate action plans, most developing countries make their mitigation and adaptation contributions conditional upon receiving international support (finance, technology transfer and/or capacity building). While provision of support for NDC implementation could enhance equity among countries, the feasibility of NDC implementation might be challenged by the large number of conditional NDCs. This paper addresses the implications of this tension based on an analysis of all 168 NDCs. We find that feasibility is challenged because conditions applied to NDCs are often not well defined. Moreover, the costs of implementing all conditional contributions are too high to be covered by existing promises of support from developed countries, even if the entire annual $100 billion of climate finance were earmarked for NDC implementation. Consistent with principles of equity and the prioritization in the Paris Agreement, a higher proportion of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have conditional NDCs than do other countries. However, differences between the distribution of countries requesting support and those currently receiving support, in particular among middle-income countries, demonstrates potential tensions between feasibility and equity. The article concludes with recommendations on how cost estimates and updated NDCs can be strengthened to ensure support for NDC implementation is targeted more equitably and cost-effectively.

Abstract

The Paris Agreement’s success depends on parties’ implementation of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) towards the Paris Agreement’s goals. In these climate action plans, most developing countries make their mitigation and adaptation contributions conditional upon receiving international support (finance, technology transfer and/or capacity building). While provision of support for NDC implementation could enhance equity among countries, the feasibility of NDC implementation might be challenged by the large number of conditional NDCs. This paper addresses the implications of this tension based on an analysis of all 168 NDCs. We find that feasibility is challenged because conditions applied to NDCs are often not well defined. Moreover, the costs of implementing all conditional contributions are too high to be covered by existing promises of support from developed countries, even if the entire annual $100 billion of climate finance were earmarked for NDC implementation. Consistent with principles of equity and the prioritization in the Paris Agreement, a higher proportion of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have conditional NDCs than do other countries. However, differences between the distribution of countries requesting support and those currently receiving support, in particular among middle-income countries, demonstrates potential tensions between feasibility and equity. The article concludes with recommendations on how cost estimates and updated NDCs can be strengthened to ensure support for NDC implementation is targeted more equitably and cost-effectively.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Political Science
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Political science
Scopus Subject Areas:Physical Sciences > Global and Planetary Change
Physical Sciences > Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
Physical Sciences > Atmospheric Science
Physical Sciences > Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Uncontrolled Keywords:atmospheric science, general environmental science nationally determined contributions, UNFCCC, climate finance, capacity building, technology transfer, equity
Language:English
Date:20 April 2020
Deposited On:30 Jun 2020 14:00
Last Modified:23 Jun 2024 01:40
Publisher:Taylor & Francis
ISSN:1469-3062
Additional Information:Autorin gibt Copyright C an, Angaben stimmen aber nicht mit Vorgaben von JDB überein - deshalb Volltext nur für Uni-Angehörige. Original PDF mit CC Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License überprüft 03112021
OA Status:Hybrid
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2019.1635874
  • Content: Published Version
  • Language: English
  • Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)