Learning from precedent: how the British Brexit experience counteracts populism outside the UK

Abstract

With the recent rise of nationalist populism, international institutions worldwide have witnessed an increase in animosities, boycotts, and withdrawals. The British withdrawal from the European Union arguably marks the most significant instance of this phenomenon to date. A growing literature examines the origins of populist successes such as the Brexit vote and explores if similar economic, social, and political conditions could fuel equivalent disintegration processes elsewhere. However, less is known about the extent to which such withdrawal episodes themselves affect populist pressures for re-nationalization. In this paper, we argue that because the first large-scale disintegration episodes such as Brexit provide new information about the feasibility and desirability of re-nationalization policies, they will affect partisan discourse about similar populist projects in other countries: Depending on the success of such precedents, populists abroad will be encouraged or deterred to follow a similar path. We explore this argument based on a quantitative text analyses of media reports in selected European countries. Our results show that populists in Europe significantly moderate their demands as the Brexit-drama unfolds, suggesting that Brexit provides a reality check for populist pro-Leave arguments. We simultaneously see intra-EU cohesion increase and mainstream discourse become more pro-European. We discuss the implications of our findings for populism and international institutions more generally.