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Regional resources and democratic secessionism


Gehring, Kai; Schneider, Stephan A (2020). Regional resources and democratic secessionism. Journal of Public Economics, 181:104073.

Abstract

Although resources have been shown to influence secessionist conflicts in developing countries, their effect in established democracies has largely been neglected. We integrate regional resources and inter-regional transfers in a model of democratic secession, and show that relative regional income correlates positively with secessionist party success in a large panel of regions. To establish causality, our difference-in-differences and triple-differences designs exploit that Scotland and Wales both feature separatist parties, but only an independent Scotland would profit from oil discoveries off its coast. We document an economically and statistically significant positive effect of regional resources and rule out plausible alternative explanations.

Abstract

Although resources have been shown to influence secessionist conflicts in developing countries, their effect in established democracies has largely been neglected. We integrate regional resources and inter-regional transfers in a model of democratic secession, and show that relative regional income correlates positively with secessionist party success in a large panel of regions. To establish causality, our difference-in-differences and triple-differences designs exploit that Scotland and Wales both feature separatist parties, but only an independent Scotland would profit from oil discoveries off its coast. We document an economically and statistically significant positive effect of regional resources and rule out plausible alternative explanations.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Political Science
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Political science
Scopus Subject Areas:Social Sciences & Humanities > Finance
Social Sciences & Humanities > Economics and Econometrics
Uncontrolled Keywords:economics and econometrics, finance fiscal federalism, inter-regional transfers, redistribution, secession, separatism, resources, economic voting
Language:English
Date:January 2020
Deposited On:07 Jan 2021 08:58
Last Modified:08 Jan 2021 21:02
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0047-2727
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104073

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