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Improved multilevel regression with post-stratification through machine learning


Broniecki, Philipp; Leemann, Lucas; Wüest, Reto (2020). Improved multilevel regression with post-stratification through machine learning. In: MrP Conference Columbia University, New York, 3 April 2020 - 4 April 2020, Columbia University.

Abstract

Multilevel regression with post-stratification (MrP) has quickly become the gold standard for small area estimation. While the first MrP models did not include context- level information, current applications almost always make use of such data. When using MrP, researchers are faced with three problems: how to select features, how to specify the functional form, and how to regularize the model parameters. These problems are especially important with regard to features included at the context level. We propose a systematic approach to estimating MrP models that addresses these issues by employing a number of machine learning techniques. We illustrate our approach based on 89 items from public opinion surveys in the US and demonstrate that our approach outperforms a standard MrP model, in which the choice of context-level variables has been informed by a rich tradition of public opinion research.

Abstract

Multilevel regression with post-stratification (MrP) has quickly become the gold standard for small area estimation. While the first MrP models did not include context- level information, current applications almost always make use of such data. When using MrP, researchers are faced with three problems: how to select features, how to specify the functional form, and how to regularize the model parameters. These problems are especially important with regard to features included at the context level. We propose a systematic approach to estimating MrP models that addresses these issues by employing a number of machine learning techniques. We illustrate our approach based on 89 items from public opinion surveys in the US and demonstrate that our approach outperforms a standard MrP model, in which the choice of context-level variables has been informed by a rich tradition of public opinion research.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper), not_refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Political Science
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Political science
Language:English
Event End Date:4 April 2020
Deposited On:14 Jan 2021 10:19
Last Modified:25 May 2022 11:29
Publisher:Columbia University
Additional Information:due to Covid online
OA Status:Green
Related URLs:https://science.nu/community/mrp-conference-at-columbia-april-3rd-april-4th-2020// (Organisation)

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