Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors


Schwendicke, Falk; Nitschke, Ina; Stark, Helmut; Micheelis, Wolfgang; Jordan, Rainer A (2020). Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors. Clinical Oral Investigations, 24(11):3997-4003.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE
This is the second part of a report on tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030. Here, we describe trends in the prevalence of edentulism in seniors 1997-2014, assess predictive factors for edentulism, and projected it into 2030.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
We used data from three waves of the cross-sectional, multi-center, nationwide representative German Oral Health Studies. Overall, 3449 seniors (65-74 years) were included (1997: 1367; 2005: 1040; 2016: 1042). Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, and the cohort were entered into age-cohort binary-logistic regression models to assess the association of predictors with edentulism and to project edentulism in 2030 via Monte Carlo simulations.
RESULTS
Between 1997 and 2014, the prevalence of edentulism decreased from 24.8 to 12.4%. With each year of age, the risk of being edentate increased (by 11%, p < 0.001); it was also significantly increased in female versus male (by 40%, p = 0.001), low versus medium and high educational level (up to 257%, p < 0.001), and in former and current smokers (up to 258%, p < 0.001). We predict the prevalence of edentulism to be reduced to 4.2% in 2030. The reduction will be higher in males, never and former smokers, and those with low socio-educational level. On an absolute level and despite a growing elderly population (aged 60-80 years), the number of edentate individuals will have decreased by 3.6 million in 2030 compared with 1997.
CONCLUSIONS
Edentulism in seniors has declined equitably in Germany. The decline is expected to continue until 2030. Further efforts are needed to tackle the underlying risk factors.
CLINICAL RELEVANCE
This study presents trends of edentulism in Germany for a period of three decades. It provides clinically relevant data for health care planning by 2030.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE
This is the second part of a report on tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030. Here, we describe trends in the prevalence of edentulism in seniors 1997-2014, assess predictive factors for edentulism, and projected it into 2030.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
We used data from three waves of the cross-sectional, multi-center, nationwide representative German Oral Health Studies. Overall, 3449 seniors (65-74 years) were included (1997: 1367; 2005: 1040; 2016: 1042). Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, and the cohort were entered into age-cohort binary-logistic regression models to assess the association of predictors with edentulism and to project edentulism in 2030 via Monte Carlo simulations.
RESULTS
Between 1997 and 2014, the prevalence of edentulism decreased from 24.8 to 12.4%. With each year of age, the risk of being edentate increased (by 11%, p < 0.001); it was also significantly increased in female versus male (by 40%, p = 0.001), low versus medium and high educational level (up to 257%, p < 0.001), and in former and current smokers (up to 258%, p < 0.001). We predict the prevalence of edentulism to be reduced to 4.2% in 2030. The reduction will be higher in males, never and former smokers, and those with low socio-educational level. On an absolute level and despite a growing elderly population (aged 60-80 years), the number of edentate individuals will have decreased by 3.6 million in 2030 compared with 1997.
CONCLUSIONS
Edentulism in seniors has declined equitably in Germany. The decline is expected to continue until 2030. Further efforts are needed to tackle the underlying risk factors.
CLINICAL RELEVANCE
This study presents trends of edentulism in Germany for a period of three decades. It provides clinically relevant data for health care planning by 2030.

Statistics

Citations

Dimensions.ai Metrics
3 citations in Web of Science®
3 citations in Scopus®
Google Scholar™

Altmetrics

Downloads

4 downloads since deposited on 15 Jan 2021
4 downloads since 12 months
Detailed statistics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > Center for Dental Medicine > Klinik für Allgemein-, Behinderten- und Seniorenzahnmedizin
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Scopus Subject Areas:Health Sciences > General Dentistry
Language:English
Date:November 2020
Deposited On:15 Jan 2021 07:29
Last Modified:01 Feb 2021 16:22
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:1432-6981
OA Status:Hybrid
Free access at:PubMed ID. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00784-020-03265-w
PubMed ID:32246279

Download

Hybrid Open Access

Download PDF  'Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors'.
Preview
Content: Published Version
Language: English
Filetype: PDF
Size: 253kB
View at publisher
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)