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A pitfall in estimating the effective reproductive number Rt for COVID-19


Petermann, Markus; Wyler, Daniel (2020). A pitfall in estimating the effective reproductive number Rt for COVID-19. Swiss Medical Weekly, 150:w20307.

Abstract

The effective reproductive number Rt of COVID-19 is determined indirectly from data that are only incompletely known (fig. 1). Approaches based on reconstructing these data by sampling time lags from suitable distributions introduce noise effects that can result in distorted estimates of Rt . This, in turn, may lead to misleading interpretations of the efficacy of the various measures taken to limit COVID-19 transmission. We discuss in some detail a study used for real time monitoring of the reproductive number in Switzerland [2].

Abstract

The effective reproductive number Rt of COVID-19 is determined indirectly from data that are only incompletely known (fig. 1). Approaches based on reconstructing these data by sampling time lags from suitable distributions introduce noise effects that can result in distorted estimates of Rt . This, in turn, may lead to misleading interpretations of the efficacy of the various measures taken to limit COVID-19 transmission. We discuss in some detail a study used for real time monitoring of the reproductive number in Switzerland [2].

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Physics Institute
Dewey Decimal Classification:530 Physics
Scopus Subject Areas:Health Sciences > General Medicine
Uncontrolled Keywords:General Medicine
Language:English
Date:13 July 2020
Deposited On:15 Jan 2021 08:16
Last Modified:16 Jan 2021 21:02
Publisher:EMH Swiss Medical Publishers
ISSN:0036-7672
OA Status:Gold
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.4414/smw.2020.20307
PubMed ID:32658987

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