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The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: a flows approach


Cortes, Guido Matias; Jaimovich, Nir; Nekarda, Christopher J; Siu, Henry E (2020). The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: a flows approach. Labour Economics, 65(101823):online.

Abstract

We use matched individual-level CPS data to study the decline in middle-wage routine occupations during the last 40 years, and determine how the associated labor market flows have evolved. The decline in employment in these occupations can be primarily accounted for by changes in transition rates from non-participation and unemployment to routine employment. We study how these transition rates have changed since the mid-1970s, and find that changes are primarily due to the propensity of individuals to make such transitions, whereas relatively little is due to demographic changes. We also find that changes in the propensity to transition into routine occupations account for a substantial proportion of the rise in non-participation observed in the U.S. in recent decades.

Abstract

We use matched individual-level CPS data to study the decline in middle-wage routine occupations during the last 40 years, and determine how the associated labor market flows have evolved. The decline in employment in these occupations can be primarily accounted for by changes in transition rates from non-participation and unemployment to routine employment. We study how these transition rates have changed since the mid-1970s, and find that changes are primarily due to the propensity of individuals to make such transitions, whereas relatively little is due to demographic changes. We also find that changes in the propensity to transition into routine occupations account for a substantial proportion of the rise in non-participation observed in the U.S. in recent decades.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Scopus Subject Areas:Social Sciences & Humanities > Economics and Econometrics
Social Sciences & Humanities > Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management
Uncontrolled Keywords:Economics and econometrics, organizational behavior and human resource management
Language:English
Date:1 August 2020
Deposited On:22 Jan 2021 17:10
Last Modified:23 Jan 2021 21:00
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0927-5371
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2020.101823

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