Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Eliciting beliefs as distributions in online surveys


Leemann, Lucas; Stoetzer, Lukas F; Traunmueller, Richard (2021). Eliciting beliefs as distributions in online surveys. Political Analysis:Epub ahead of print.

Abstract

Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens’ uncertain expectations. Our results suggest that an elicitation method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs well. It measures average citizens’ subjective belief distributions reliably and is easily implemented in the context of regular (online) surveys. We expect that a wider use of this method will lead to considerable improvements in the study of citizens’ expectations and beliefs.

Abstract

Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens’ uncertain expectations. Our results suggest that an elicitation method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs well. It measures average citizens’ subjective belief distributions reliably and is easily implemented in the context of regular (online) surveys. We expect that a wider use of this method will lead to considerable improvements in the study of citizens’ expectations and beliefs.

Statistics

Citations

Dimensions.ai Metrics

Altmetrics

Downloads

6 downloads since deposited on 08 Feb 2021
6 downloads since 12 months
Detailed statistics

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:06 Faculty of Arts > Institute of Political Science
Dewey Decimal Classification:320 Political science
Language:English
Date:4 February 2021
Deposited On:08 Feb 2021 12:02
Last Modified:23 Feb 2021 13:57
Publisher:Oxford University Press
ISSN:1047-1987
OA Status:Hybrid
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2020.42

Download

Hybrid Open Access

Download PDF  'Eliciting beliefs as distributions in online surveys'.
Preview
Content: Accepted Version
Language: English
Filetype: PDF
Size: 3MB
View at publisher
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)