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A data-driven approach to identify risk profiles and protective drugs in COVID-19


Cippà, Pietro E; Cugnata, Federica; Ferrari, Paolo; Brombin, Chiara; Ruinelli, Lorenzo; Bianchi, Giorgia; Beria, Nicola; Schulz, Lukas; Bernasconi, Enos; Merlani, Paolo; Ceschi, Alessandro; Di Serio, Clelia (2021). A data-driven approach to identify risk profiles and protective drugs in COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 118(1):e2016877118.

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading around the world, increasing evidence highlights the role of cardiometabolic risk factors in determining the susceptibility to the disease. The fragmented data collected during the initial emergency limited the possibility of investigating the effect of highly correlated covariates and of modeling the interplay between risk factors and medication. The present study is based on comprehensive monitoring of 576 COVID-19 patients. Different statistical approaches were applied to gain a comprehensive insight in terms of both the identification of risk factors and the analysis of dependency structure among clinical and demographic characteristics. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus enters host cells by binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), but whether or not renin−angiotensin−aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) would be beneficial to COVID-19 cases remains controversial. The survival tree approach was applied to define a multilayer risk stratification and better profile patient survival with respect to drug regimens, showing a significant protective effect of RAASi with a reduced risk of in-hospital death. Bayesian networks were estimated, to uncover complex interrelationships and confounding effects. The results confirmed the role of RAASi in reducing the risk of death in COVID-19 patients. De novo treatment with RAASi in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 should be prospectively investigated in a randomized controlled trial to ascertain the extent of risk reduction for in-hospital death in COVID-19.

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic is spreading around the world, increasing evidence highlights the role of cardiometabolic risk factors in determining the susceptibility to the disease. The fragmented data collected during the initial emergency limited the possibility of investigating the effect of highly correlated covariates and of modeling the interplay between risk factors and medication. The present study is based on comprehensive monitoring of 576 COVID-19 patients. Different statistical approaches were applied to gain a comprehensive insight in terms of both the identification of risk factors and the analysis of dependency structure among clinical and demographic characteristics. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus enters host cells by binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), but whether or not renin−angiotensin−aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) would be beneficial to COVID-19 cases remains controversial. The survival tree approach was applied to define a multilayer risk stratification and better profile patient survival with respect to drug regimens, showing a significant protective effect of RAASi with a reduced risk of in-hospital death. Bayesian networks were estimated, to uncover complex interrelationships and confounding effects. The results confirmed the role of RAASi in reducing the risk of death in COVID-19 patients. De novo treatment with RAASi in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 should be prospectively investigated in a randomized controlled trial to ascertain the extent of risk reduction for in-hospital death in COVID-19.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > University Hospital Zurich > Clinic for Clinical Pharmacology and Toxicology
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Scopus Subject Areas:Health Sciences > Multidisciplinary
Uncontrolled Keywords:Multidisciplinary
Language:English
Date:5 January 2021
Deposited On:12 Feb 2021 12:56
Last Modified:01 Mar 2021 16:30
Publisher:National Academy of Sciences
ISSN:0027-8424
OA Status:Hybrid
Free access at:PubMed ID. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016877118
PubMed ID:33303654

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