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Probabilistic analysis of COVID-19 patients' individual length of stay in Swiss intensive care units

Henzi, Alexander; Kleger, Gian-Reto; Hilty, Matthias P; Wendel Garcia, Pedro D; Ziegel, Johanna F (2021). Probabilistic analysis of COVID-19 patients' individual length of stay in Swiss intensive care units. PLoS ONE, 16(2):e0247265.

Abstract

RATIONALE

The COVID-19 pandemic induces considerable strain on intensive care unit resources.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to provide early predictions of individual patients' intensive care unit length of stay, which might improve resource allocation and patient care during the on-going pandemic.

METHODS

We developed a new semiparametric distributional index model depending on covariates which are available within 24h after intensive care unit admission. The model was trained on a large cohort of acute respiratory distress syndrome patients out of the Minimal Dataset of the Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine. Then, we predict individual length of stay of patients in the RISC-19-ICU registry.

MEASUREMENTS

The RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland collected data of 557 critically ill patients with COVID-19.

MAIN RESULTS

The model gives probabilistically and marginally calibrated predictions which are more informative than the empirical length of stay distribution of the training data. However, marginal calibration was worse after approximately 20 days in the whole cohort and in different subgroups. Long staying COVID-19 patients have shorter length of stay than regular acute respiratory distress syndrome patients. We found differences in LoS with respect to age categories and gender but not in regions of Switzerland with different stress of intensive care unit resources.

CONCLUSION

A new probabilistic model permits calibrated and informative probabilistic prediction of LoS of individual patients with COVID-19. Long staying patients could be discovered early. The model may be the basis to simulate stochastic models for bed occupation in intensive care units under different casemix scenarios.

Additional indexing

Contributors:RISC-19-ICU Investigators for Switzerland
Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > University Hospital Zurich > Institute of Intensive Care Medicine
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Scopus Subject Areas:Health Sciences > Multidisciplinary
Language:English
Date:2021
Deposited On:29 Jun 2021 10:14
Last Modified:25 Oct 2024 01:40
Publisher:Public Library of Science (PLoS)
ISSN:1932-6203
OA Status:Gold
Free access at:PubMed ID. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247265
PubMed ID:33606773
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