Header

UZH-Logo

Maintenance Infos

Going viral: propaganda, persuasion and polarization in 1932 Hamburg


Caesmann, Marcel Jochen; Caprettini, Bruno; Voth, Hans-Joachim; Yanagizawa-Drott, David (2021). Going viral: propaganda, persuasion and polarization in 1932 Hamburg. Discussion Paper Series 16356, Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Abstract

Propaganda can convince or repel. Social interactions can magnify these effects. We estimate the impact of Nazi marches in 1932 Hamburg, using granular data on all households. Direct exposure immediately affected voting -- propaganda was persuasive. To study diffusion, we measure social connections using contagion patterns from the 1918 Spanish flu, combined with social similarity. Nazi support spread to other parts of the city along the predicted contagion paths. Social spillovers are of similar importance as direct exposure. The marches were also polarizing the electorate â?? in opposition strongholds, they backfired, and gains were concentrated in areas with high Nazi support.

Abstract

Propaganda can convince or repel. Social interactions can magnify these effects. We estimate the impact of Nazi marches in 1932 Hamburg, using granular data on all households. Direct exposure immediately affected voting -- propaganda was persuasive. To study diffusion, we measure social connections using contagion patterns from the 1918 Spanish flu, combined with social similarity. Nazi support spread to other parts of the city along the predicted contagion paths. Social spillovers are of similar importance as direct exposure. The marches were also polarizing the electorate â?? in opposition strongholds, they backfired, and gains were concentrated in areas with high Nazi support.

Statistics

Downloads

0 downloads since deposited on 30 Aug 2021
0 downloads since 12 months

Additional indexing

Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:July 2021
Deposited On:30 Aug 2021 15:29
Last Modified:30 Aug 2021 15:29
Series Name:Discussion Paper Series
Number of Pages:71
ISSN:0265-8003
OA Status:Closed
Official URL:https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=16356

Download

Closed Access: Download allowed only for UZH members

Content: Published Version
Language: English
Filetype: PDF - Registered users only
Size: 13MB