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Impacts of climate change on wheat phenology and yield in Indus Basin, Pakistan


Azmat, Muhammad; Ilyas, Fatima; Sarwar, Afia; Huggel, Christian; Vaghefi, Saeid Ashraf; Hui, Tao; Qamar, Muhammad Uzair; Bilal, Muhammad; Ahmed, Zeeshan (2021). Impacts of climate change on wheat phenology and yield in Indus Basin, Pakistan. Science of the Total Environment, 790:148221.

Abstract

Aim of this study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on phenology and yield of winter wheat in rainfed and irrigated regions of Pakistan by using integration of two well-known crop models including STICS and APSIM with CORDEX-SA regional climate models (RCMs). A number of different adaptation strategies based on early sowing (i.e. S1:10 and S2:20 days), irrigation (I1:15% and I2:30% additional water) and a combination of sowing and irrigation adaptations were examined to recover the potential losses that would occur due to climate change. The data for the wheat phenology, biomass (t/ha) at different stages and yield (t/ha) was obtained from several experiments at national research institutes in Pakistan under both rainfed and irrigated conditions. After calibration and validation of both crop models (STICS and APSIM), the current climate data were replaced with the CORDEX-SA RCM-projections for climate change impact analysis. A significant rising and declining trends were observed in temperature and precipitation patterns, respectively, for the selected study regions. Consequently, a substantial impact of climate change on wheat phenology (anthesis stage, maturity stage, growing length), biomass (t/ha) and yield (t/ha) was observed under scenario periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Additionally, the adaptation strategies on wheat for rainfed regions showed a substantial improvement in wheat biomass and yield simulated by STICS model particularly for sowing-2 under RCP4.5. Irrigated regions showed more improvement for irrigation-2 (I2) and combination of sowing-1 + irrigation-2 (S1 + I2) using the STICS model under both RCPs. Overall, it was observed that changes in crop phenology had a stronger impact in terms of crop yield for RCP8.5 as compare to RCP4.5. This study provides a valuable understanding and way forward for the better wheat management under changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. The study also discuss in detail, the adaptation strategies to cope with potential damage, over two different irrigation zones (rainfed and irrigated) in Pakistan.

Abstract

Aim of this study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on phenology and yield of winter wheat in rainfed and irrigated regions of Pakistan by using integration of two well-known crop models including STICS and APSIM with CORDEX-SA regional climate models (RCMs). A number of different adaptation strategies based on early sowing (i.e. S1:10 and S2:20 days), irrigation (I1:15% and I2:30% additional water) and a combination of sowing and irrigation adaptations were examined to recover the potential losses that would occur due to climate change. The data for the wheat phenology, biomass (t/ha) at different stages and yield (t/ha) was obtained from several experiments at national research institutes in Pakistan under both rainfed and irrigated conditions. After calibration and validation of both crop models (STICS and APSIM), the current climate data were replaced with the CORDEX-SA RCM-projections for climate change impact analysis. A significant rising and declining trends were observed in temperature and precipitation patterns, respectively, for the selected study regions. Consequently, a substantial impact of climate change on wheat phenology (anthesis stage, maturity stage, growing length), biomass (t/ha) and yield (t/ha) was observed under scenario periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Additionally, the adaptation strategies on wheat for rainfed regions showed a substantial improvement in wheat biomass and yield simulated by STICS model particularly for sowing-2 under RCP4.5. Irrigated regions showed more improvement for irrigation-2 (I2) and combination of sowing-1 + irrigation-2 (S1 + I2) using the STICS model under both RCPs. Overall, it was observed that changes in crop phenology had a stronger impact in terms of crop yield for RCP8.5 as compare to RCP4.5. This study provides a valuable understanding and way forward for the better wheat management under changes in precipitation and temperature patterns. The study also discuss in detail, the adaptation strategies to cope with potential damage, over two different irrigation zones (rainfed and irrigated) in Pakistan.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Scopus Subject Areas:Physical Sciences > Environmental Engineering
Physical Sciences > Environmental Chemistry
Physical Sciences > Waste Management and Disposal
Physical Sciences > Pollution
Uncontrolled Keywords:Pollution, Waste Management and Disposal, Environmental Chemistry, Environmental Engineering
Language:English
Date:1 October 2021
Deposited On:05 Jan 2022 16:04
Last Modified:27 Mar 2024 03:03
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0048-9697
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148221
Project Information:
  • : FunderUniversity of Zurich
  • : Grant ID
  • : Project Title
  • : FunderNational Key Research and Development Program of China Stem Cell and Translational Research
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