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Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale: Development and validation of a seizure freedom prediction tool


Weil, Alexander G; Lewis, Evan C; Ibrahim, George M; Kola, Olivia; et al; Ramantani, Georgia; Stienen, Martin N; Krayenbühl, Niklaus (2021). Hemispherectomy Outcome Prediction Scale: Development and validation of a seizure freedom prediction tool. Epilepsia, 62(5):1064-1073.

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a model to predict seizure freedom in children undergoing cerebral hemispheric surgery for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy.

Methods: We analyzed 1267 hemispheric surgeries performed in pediatric participants across 32 centers and 12 countries to identify predictors of seizure freedom at 3 months after surgery. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed based on 70% of the dataset (training set) and validated on 30% of the dataset (validation set). Missing data were handled using multiple imputation techniques.

Results: Overall, 817 of 1237 (66%) hemispheric surgeries led to seizure freedom (median follow-up = 24 months), and 1050 of 1237 (85%) were seizure-free at 12 months after surgery. A simple regression model containing age at seizure onset, presence of generalized seizure semiology, presence of contralateral 18-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose-positron emission tomography hypometabolism, etiologic substrate, and previous nonhemispheric resective surgery is predictive of seizure freedom (area under the curve = .72). A Hemispheric Surgery Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS) score was devised that can be used to predict seizure freedom.

Significance: Children most likely to benefit from hemispheric surgery can be selected and counseled through the implementation of a scale derived from a multiple regression model. Importantly, children who are unlikely to experience seizure control can be spared from the complications and deficits associated with this surgery. The HOPS score is likely to help physicians in clinical decision-making.

Keywords: hemispheric surgery; prognostication tool; seizure outcomes.

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a model to predict seizure freedom in children undergoing cerebral hemispheric surgery for the treatment of drug-resistant epilepsy.

Methods: We analyzed 1267 hemispheric surgeries performed in pediatric participants across 32 centers and 12 countries to identify predictors of seizure freedom at 3 months after surgery. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed based on 70% of the dataset (training set) and validated on 30% of the dataset (validation set). Missing data were handled using multiple imputation techniques.

Results: Overall, 817 of 1237 (66%) hemispheric surgeries led to seizure freedom (median follow-up = 24 months), and 1050 of 1237 (85%) were seizure-free at 12 months after surgery. A simple regression model containing age at seizure onset, presence of generalized seizure semiology, presence of contralateral 18-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose-positron emission tomography hypometabolism, etiologic substrate, and previous nonhemispheric resective surgery is predictive of seizure freedom (area under the curve = .72). A Hemispheric Surgery Outcome Prediction Scale (HOPS) score was devised that can be used to predict seizure freedom.

Significance: Children most likely to benefit from hemispheric surgery can be selected and counseled through the implementation of a scale derived from a multiple regression model. Importantly, children who are unlikely to experience seizure control can be spared from the complications and deficits associated with this surgery. The HOPS score is likely to help physicians in clinical decision-making.

Keywords: hemispheric surgery; prognostication tool; seizure outcomes.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > University Children's Hospital Zurich > Medical Clinic
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Scopus Subject Areas:Life Sciences > Neurology
Health Sciences > Neurology (clinical)
Uncontrolled Keywords:Neurology (clinical), Neurology
Language:English
Date:1 May 2021
Deposited On:27 Jan 2022 08:26
Last Modified:26 Apr 2024 01:40
Publisher:Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
ISSN:0013-9580
OA Status:Closed
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/epi.16861
PubMed ID:33713438
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