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Long-term transients help explain regime shifts in consumer-renewable resource systems

Eppinga, Maarten B; Siteur, Koen; Baudena, Mara; Reader, Martin O; van 't Veen, Hanneke; Anderies, John M; Santos, Maria J (2021). Long-term transients help explain regime shifts in consumer-renewable resource systems. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1):42.

Abstract

As planetary boundaries loom, there is an urgent need to develop sustainable equilibriums between societies and the resources they consume, thereby avoiding regime shifts to undesired states. Transient system trajectories to a stable state may differ substantially, posing significant challenges to distinguishing sustainable from unsustainable trajectories. We use stylized models to show how feedbacks between anthropogenic harvest regimes and resource availability drive transient dynamics. We show how substantial time lags may occur between interventions and social-ecological outcomes, and that sudden system collapses need not be linked to recent environmental changes. Historical reconstructions of island state populations show a variety of transient dynamics that closely corresponds to model expectations based on island differences in productivity and harvesting regime. We conclude that vulnerable social-ecological systems may persist when the population:resource ratio remains within a viable range of intermediate (rather than small) values, which implies that averting environmental crises may require counter-intuitive measures.

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
08 Research Priority Programs > Global Change and Biodiversity
Dewey Decimal Classification:570 Life sciences; biology
Uncontrolled Keywords:Applied Mathematics, General Mathematics
Language:English
Date:1 December 2021
Deposited On:24 Feb 2022 10:05
Last Modified:27 Jan 2025 02:36
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:2662-4435
OA Status:Gold
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00112-y
Project Information:
  • Funder: University Research Priority Program on Global Change and Biodiversity of the University of Zurich.
  • Grant ID:
  • Project Title:
  • Funder: H2020
  • Grant ID: 689518
  • Project Title: MERCES - Marine Ecosystem Restoration in Changing European Seas
  • Funder: National Key Research and Development Program of China
  • Grant ID:
  • Project Title:
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  • Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)

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