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Predicting COVID-19 prognosis in the ICU remained challenging: external validation in a multinational regional cohort

Meijs, Daniek A M; van Kuijk, Sander M J; Wynants, Laure; Stessel, Björn; Mehagnoul-Schipper, Jannet; Hana, Anisa; et al; CoDaP investigators (2022). Predicting COVID-19 prognosis in the ICU remained challenging: external validation in a multinational regional cohort. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 152:257-268.

Abstract

Objective: Many prediction models for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been developed. External validation is mandatory before implementation in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). We selected and validated prognostic models in the Euregio Intensive Care COVID (EICC) cohort.

Study design and setting: In this multinational cohort study, routine data from COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs within the Euregio Meuse-Rhine were collected from March to August 2020. COVID-19 models were selected based on model type, predictors, outcomes, and reporting. Furthermore, general ICU scores were assessed. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and calibration by calibration-in-the-large and calibration plots. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool results.

Results: 551 patients were admitted. Mean age was 65.4±11.2 years, 29% were female, and ICU mortality was 36%. Nine out of 238 published models were externally validated. Pooled AUCs were between 0.53 and 0.70 and calibration-in-the-large between -9% and 6%. Calibration plots showed generally poor but, for the 4C Mortality score and SEIMC score, moderate calibration.

Conclusion: Of the nine prognostic models that were externally validated in the EICC cohort, only two showed reasonable discrimination and moderate calibration. For future pandemics, better models based on routine data are needed to support admission decision-making.

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > University Hospital Zurich > Institute of Intensive Care Medicine
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Uncontrolled Keywords:Epidemiology
Language:English
Date:1 December 2022
Deposited On:02 Nov 2022 11:36
Last Modified:28 Oct 2024 02:37
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0895-4356
OA Status:Hybrid
Free access at:PubMed ID. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2022.10.015
PubMed ID:36309146
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  • Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

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