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Peak event: the rise, crisis and potential decline of the Olympic Games and the World Cup


Müller, Martin; Gogishvili, David; Wolfe, Sven Daniel; Gaffney, Christopher; Hug, Miriam; Leick, Annick (2023). Peak event: the rise, crisis and potential decline of the Olympic Games and the World Cup. Tourism Management, 95:104657.

Abstract

This paper tracks the growth of two of the largest tourist events: the Olympic Games and the Football World Cup, drawing on a dataset containing all events between 1964 and 2018. Overall, the size of the three events has grown about 60-fold over the past 50 years, thirteen times faster than world GDP. We identify an S-shaped growth curve and four different growth periods, with an emergent crisis phase in the late 2010s that may have brought us to ‘peak event’ – the point at which these events have reached their largest size. Outlining three different scenarios, we argue that the Olympics and the World Cup are at a critical bifurcation point, which also requires new bidding and hosting policies.

Abstract

This paper tracks the growth of two of the largest tourist events: the Olympic Games and the Football World Cup, drawing on a dataset containing all events between 1964 and 2018. Overall, the size of the three events has grown about 60-fold over the past 50 years, thirteen times faster than world GDP. We identify an S-shaped growth curve and four different growth periods, with an emergent crisis phase in the late 2010s that may have brought us to ‘peak event’ – the point at which these events have reached their largest size. Outlining three different scenarios, we argue that the Olympics and the World Cup are at a critical bifurcation point, which also requires new bidding and hosting policies.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Geography
Dewey Decimal Classification:910 Geography & travel
Scopus Subject Areas:Social Sciences & Humanities > Development
Social Sciences & Humanities > Transportation
Social Sciences & Humanities > Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management
Social Sciences & Humanities > Strategy and Management
Uncontrolled Keywords:Strategy and Management, Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management, Transportation, Development
Language:English
Date:1 April 2023
Deposited On:15 Feb 2023 16:11
Last Modified:30 Mar 2024 02:34
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0261-5177
OA Status:Hybrid
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2022.104657
  • Content: Published Version
  • Language: English
  • Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)