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Political uncertainty and the geographic allocation of credit: evidence from small businesses


Cerqueiro, Geraldo; Mão-de-Ferro, Ana; Penas, María Fabiana (2023). Political uncertainty and the geographic allocation of credit: evidence from small businesses. TILEC Discussion Paper DP 2020-00, University of Zurich.

Abstract

We investigate how banks change the geographic distribution of their small business loan portfolio when they face political uncertainty in some of the states where they operate. Using exogenous variation in gubernatorial elections with binding term limits, we show that political uncertainty causes local banks to increase out-of-state lending to small firms, especially to firms located in the wealthiest out-of-state counties. This effect follows a decrease in lending in the local market and is stronger for banks that are more capital constrained. The increase in credit availability leads to an increase in employment growth and net firm creation in sectors that need larger amounts of startup capital. Our results indicate that geographic diversification and financial integration enable banks to sidestep the negative local economic effects of political uncertainty.

Abstract

We investigate how banks change the geographic distribution of their small business loan portfolio when they face political uncertainty in some of the states where they operate. Using exogenous variation in gubernatorial elections with binding term limits, we show that political uncertainty causes local banks to increase out-of-state lending to small firms, especially to firms located in the wealthiest out-of-state counties. This effect follows a decrease in lending in the local market and is stronger for banks that are more capital constrained. The increase in credit availability leads to an increase in employment growth and net firm creation in sectors that need larger amounts of startup capital. Our results indicate that geographic diversification and financial integration enable banks to sidestep the negative local economic effects of political uncertainty.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Banking and Finance
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Scope:Discipline-based scholarship (basic research)
Language:English
Date:1 February 2023
Deposited On:18 Jul 2023 06:37
Last Modified:20 Jun 2024 09:54
Series Name:TILEC Discussion Paper
ISSN:1556-5068
OA Status:Green
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3492043
Related URLs: (Organisation)
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:23888
  • Content: Published Version
  • Language: English