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Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland


Ranaldo, Angelo; Meichle, Mario; Zanetti, Attilio (2011). Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland. Financial markets and portfolio management, 25(4):435-453.

Abstract

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.

Abstract

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Banking and Finance
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Scopus Subject Areas:Social Sciences & Humanities > Accounting
Social Sciences & Humanities > Finance
Scope:Discipline-based scholarship (basic research)
Language:English
Date:December 2011
Deposited On:22 Aug 2023 07:28
Last Modified:30 Mar 2024 04:33
Publisher:Springer
ISSN:1934-4554
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s11408-011-0173-y
Other Identification Number:merlin-id:5917