Revisiting the power of future expectations and educational path dependencies

Abstract

Individuals from more advantaged socioeconomic backgrounds and those with loftier future expectations typically have higher educational attainment. However, it is important to understand just how consequential future expectations are for educational attainment independent of socioeconomic origins—because these expectations might enable intergenerational social mobility. Moreover, it is unclear whether institutional structures moderate the influences of socioeconomic origins and future expectations on educational attainment. I address these questions by analyzing educational attainment as it relates to transitions in a system that offers multiple educational tracks. Using data from a 15-year longitudinal study conducted in Switzerland (N = 4986), I analyze transitions from lower- to upper-secondary education (academic vs. vocational tracks) and from there to university. Path models reveal that both socioeconomic origins and future expectations are significantly associated with individuals’ probability of moving along academic paths and into university, but future expectations have a strong unique predictive power even when controlling for socioeconomic origins. However, because the education system partially channels educational trajectories along distinct educational tracks, it minimizes the beneficial effect of future expectations on educational attainment and—by extension—intergenerational social mobility. I conclude that socioeconomic advantage and optimistic future expectations may only shape educational attainment to the extent that institutional opportunity structures allow such resources to take effect.