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Spatial synchrony at the extremes: Tail-dependence in temperature drives tail-dependence in birds’ spatial synchrony across North America


Ghosh, Shyamolina; Petchey, Owen (2023). Spatial synchrony at the extremes: Tail-dependence in temperature drives tail-dependence in birds’ spatial synchrony across North America. Authorea 86737085.

Abstract

Environmental change is becoming synchronous across sites with frequent emergence of extremes in recent years, with alarming potential impacts on species’ synchronous abundance over large scales. With 23 years of breeding bird survey data across North America, we found that some birds are becoming synchronously rare across sites, while others are becoming synchronously common. We evaluated the relative importance of two co-occurring mechanisms (environment-driven and dispersal-driven) to explain such spatial synchrony in extreme low or high abundance (i.e., tail-dependent synchrony). We found that spatial synchrony in temperature extremes (i.e., tail-dependence in climate) was the major driver for birds’ tail-dependent spatial synchrony up to 250 Km. In addition, temperature extremes and dispersal trait both favored synergistically some species making them synchronously common across sites. In a rapidly changing environment, these findings highlight the importance of considering synchronized climatic extremes to assess species’ tail-dependent spatial synchrony across large scale.

Abstract

Environmental change is becoming synchronous across sites with frequent emergence of extremes in recent years, with alarming potential impacts on species’ synchronous abundance over large scales. With 23 years of breeding bird survey data across North America, we found that some birds are becoming synchronously rare across sites, while others are becoming synchronously common. We evaluated the relative importance of two co-occurring mechanisms (environment-driven and dispersal-driven) to explain such spatial synchrony in extreme low or high abundance (i.e., tail-dependent synchrony). We found that spatial synchrony in temperature extremes (i.e., tail-dependence in climate) was the major driver for birds’ tail-dependent spatial synchrony up to 250 Km. In addition, temperature extremes and dispersal trait both favored synergistically some species making them synchronously common across sites. In a rapidly changing environment, these findings highlight the importance of considering synchronized climatic extremes to assess species’ tail-dependent spatial synchrony across large scale.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies
Dewey Decimal Classification:570 Life sciences; biology
590 Animals (Zoology)
Language:English
Date:16 November 2023
Deposited On:04 Jan 2024 12:10
Last Modified:29 May 2024 12:12
Series Name:Authorea
OA Status:Green
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.22541/au.170014328.86737085/v1
  • Content: Published Version
  • Language: English