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Comparison of five different risk scores to predict incident type 2 diabetes in the Swiss HIV cohort study


Blondet, Fanny; Kraege, Vanessa; Cavassini, Matthias; Damas Fernandez, José; Vollenweider, Peter; Wandeler, Gilles; Hoffman, Matthias; Calmy, Alexandra; Stoeckle, Marcel; Bernasconi, Enos; Hasse, Barbara; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Méan, Marie; Swiss HIV Cohort Study (2023). Comparison of five different risk scores to predict incident type 2 diabetes in the Swiss HIV cohort study. AIDS, 37(6):935-939.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

People with HIV (PWH) have a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) than HIV-negative individuals. In the general population, diabetes risk scores are used to identify persons at risk of developing T2D, but little is known regarding their performance in PWH.

DESIGN

Assessment of the capacity of five diabetes risk scores to predict T2D in PWH.

METHODS

A prospective study including all Swiss HIV cohort study (SHCS) participants followed between 2009 and 2019. Five diabetes risk scores were assessed: FINDRISC versions 1 and 2, Balkau, Swiss Diabetes Association (SDA), and Kraege.

RESULTS

Three thousand eight hundred fifty-three T2D-free PWH (78.5% men, 39.9 ± 11.3 years) were included. After a median follow-up of 4.8 years (interquartile range 2.2-7.8), 62 participants (1.6%) developed T2D, corresponding to an incidence rate of 3.18 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval = 2.47-4.08). Participants who developed T2D were older (48.7 ± 12.4 vs. 39.8 ± 11.2 years), more likely to be obese (22.6% vs. 7.4%), abdominally obese (9.7% vs. 1.5%), and to have a family history of diabetes (32.3% vs. 19.1%) than those without T2D. The AUC for incident T2D ranged between 0.72 (Kraege 16) and 0.81 (SDA, FINDRISC2 and Balkau). Sensitivity ranged between 3.2% (Balkau) and 67.7% (FINDRISC1) and specificity between 80.9% (FINDRISC1) and 98.3% (Balkau). Positive predictive values of all scores were below 20%, while negative predictive values were above 98%.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that the performance of conventional diabetes risk scores in PWH is promising, especially for Balkau and FINDRISC2, which showed good discriminatory power. These scores may help identify patients at a low risk of T2D in whom careful assessment of modifiable T2D risk factors can be spared.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

People with HIV (PWH) have a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) than HIV-negative individuals. In the general population, diabetes risk scores are used to identify persons at risk of developing T2D, but little is known regarding their performance in PWH.

DESIGN

Assessment of the capacity of five diabetes risk scores to predict T2D in PWH.

METHODS

A prospective study including all Swiss HIV cohort study (SHCS) participants followed between 2009 and 2019. Five diabetes risk scores were assessed: FINDRISC versions 1 and 2, Balkau, Swiss Diabetes Association (SDA), and Kraege.

RESULTS

Three thousand eight hundred fifty-three T2D-free PWH (78.5% men, 39.9 ± 11.3 years) were included. After a median follow-up of 4.8 years (interquartile range 2.2-7.8), 62 participants (1.6%) developed T2D, corresponding to an incidence rate of 3.18 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval = 2.47-4.08). Participants who developed T2D were older (48.7 ± 12.4 vs. 39.8 ± 11.2 years), more likely to be obese (22.6% vs. 7.4%), abdominally obese (9.7% vs. 1.5%), and to have a family history of diabetes (32.3% vs. 19.1%) than those without T2D. The AUC for incident T2D ranged between 0.72 (Kraege 16) and 0.81 (SDA, FINDRISC2 and Balkau). Sensitivity ranged between 3.2% (Balkau) and 67.7% (FINDRISC1) and specificity between 80.9% (FINDRISC1) and 98.3% (Balkau). Positive predictive values of all scores were below 20%, while negative predictive values were above 98%.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that the performance of conventional diabetes risk scores in PWH is promising, especially for Balkau and FINDRISC2, which showed good discriminatory power. These scores may help identify patients at a low risk of T2D in whom careful assessment of modifiable T2D risk factors can be spared.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:04 Faculty of Medicine > University Hospital Zurich > Clinic for Infectious Diseases
Dewey Decimal Classification:610 Medicine & health
Scopus Subject Areas:Health Sciences > Immunology and Allergy
Life Sciences > Immunology
Health Sciences > Infectious Diseases
Language:English
Date:1 May 2023
Deposited On:15 Jan 2024 13:39
Last Modified:30 Jun 2024 01:37
Publisher:Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
ISSN:0269-9370
OA Status:Hybrid
Free access at:Publisher DOI. An embargo period may apply.
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003486
PubMed ID:36651826
  • Content: Published Version
  • Language: English
  • Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)