Abstract
The assessment of environmental hazard indicators such as persistence, mobility, toxicity, or bioaccumulation of chemicals often results in highly variable experimental outcomes. Persistence is particularly affected due to a multitude of influencing environmental factors, with biodegradation experiments resulting in half-lives spanning several orders of magnitude. Also, half-lives may lie beyond the limits of reliable half-life quantification, and the number of available data points per substance may vary considerably, requiring a statistically robust approach for the characterization of data. Here, we apply Bayesian inference to address these challenges and characterize the distributions of reported soil half-lives. Our model estimates the mean, standard deviation, and corresponding uncertainties from a set of reported half-lives experimentally obtained for a single substance. We apply our inference model to 893 pesticides and pesticide transformation products with experimental soil half-lives of varying data quantity and quality, and we infer the half-life distribution for each compound. By estimating average half-lives, their experimental variability, and the uncertainty of the estimations, we provide a reliable data source for building predictive models, which are urgently needed by regulatory authorities to manage existing chemicals and by industry to design benign, nonpersistent chemicals. Our approach can be readily adapted for other environmental hazard indicators.
Hafner, Jasmin