Abstract
This study innovatively examines long-term global economic and population trends using the demographic transition model, and mapping shifts in world centers of gravity from 1800 to 2020, including projections to 2050. Utilizing comprehensive, country-level data from Gapminder, we provide a detailed exploration of the geospatial and temporal dynamics influencing economic growth and demographic changes. Our findings validate the study’s three main hypotheses: First, we establish an association between gross domestic product growth and demographic evolution, characterized by synchronized global patterns. Second, we demonstrate that world centers of gravity are reliable indicators of these long-term trends. Third, we reveal that the movements of the world economic center of gravity and the world demographic transition stage center of gravity intricately interact, while displaying notable regional variation.
Eppenberger, Patrick