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Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation


Hoffmann, Mathias; MacDonald, Ronald (2009). Real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials: A present value interpretation. European Economic Review, 53(8):952-970.

Abstract

Although the real exchange rate–real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we re-investigate the RERI relationship using bilateral US real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978–2007. Instead of testing one particular model, we build on Campbell and Shiller [1987. Cointegration tests of present-value models. Journal of Political Economy 95, 1062–1088] to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship. Our empirical results provide robust evidence that the RERI link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons.

Abstract

Although the real exchange rate–real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we re-investigate the RERI relationship using bilateral US real exchange rate data spanning the period 1978–2007. Instead of testing one particular model, we build on Campbell and Shiller [1987. Cointegration tests of present-value models. Journal of Political Economy 95, 1062–1088] to propose a metric of the economic significance of the relationship. Our empirical results provide robust evidence that the RERI link is economically significant and that the real interest rate differential is a reasonable approximation of the expected rate of depreciation over longer horizons.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Scopus Subject Areas:Social Sciences & Humanities > Finance
Social Sciences & Humanities > Economics and Econometrics
Language:English
Date:November 2009
Deposited On:02 Feb 2010 09:16
Last Modified:29 Jul 2020 21:16
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0014-2921
OA Status:Green
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.04.013

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