Recent advances in permafrost modelling

Abstract

This paper provides a review of permafrost modelling advances, primarily since the 2003 permafrost conference in Zürich, Switzerland, with an emphasis on spatial permafrost models, in both arctic and high mountain environments. Models are categorised according to temporal, thermal and spatial criteria, and their approach to defining the relationship between climate, site surface conditions and permafrost status. The most significant recent advances include the expanding application of permafrost thermal models within spatial models, application of transient numerical thermal models within spatial models and incorporation of permafrost directly within global circulation model (GCM) land surface schemes. Future challenges for permafrost modelling will include establishing the appropriate level of integration required for accurate simulation of permafrost-climate interaction within GCMs, the integration of environmental change such as treeline migration into permafrost response to climate change projections, and parameterising the effects of sub-grid scale variability in surface processes and properties on small-scale (large area) spatial models.