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International evidence for return predictability and the implications for long-run covariation of the G7 stock markets


Nitschka, Thomas (2007). International evidence for return predictability and the implications for long-run covariation of the G7 stock markets. Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics No. 338, University of Zurich.

Abstract

Temporary fluctuations of the U.S. consumption-wealth ratio, cay, predict excess returns onninternational stock markets at the business cycle frequency. This finding is the reflection of a common, temporary component in national stock markets. Exposure to this common component explains up to 60 percent of the covariation among long-horizon returns on the G7nstock markets for the time period from 1973 to 2005. The impact of the common componentnon stock market comovement is particularly pronounced in the period from 1990 to 2005.

Abstract

Temporary fluctuations of the U.S. consumption-wealth ratio, cay, predict excess returns onninternational stock markets at the business cycle frequency. This finding is the reflection of a common, temporary component in national stock markets. Exposure to this common component explains up to 60 percent of the covariation among long-horizon returns on the G7nstock markets for the time period from 1973 to 2005. The impact of the common componentnon stock market comovement is particularly pronounced in the period from 1990 to 2005.

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Item Type:Working Paper
Communities & Collections:03 Faculty of Economics > Department of Economics
Working Paper Series > Institute for Empirical Research in Economics (former)
Dewey Decimal Classification:330 Economics
Language:English
Date:November 2007
Deposited On:29 Nov 2011 22:47
Last Modified:27 Nov 2020 07:15
Series Name:Working paper series / Institute for Empirical Research in Economics
ISSN:1424-0459
OA Status:Green
Official URL:http://www.econ.uzh.ch/wp.html