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Mapping the increasing risk of human alveolar echinococcosis in Limburg, The Netherlands


Takumi, K; Hegglin, D; Deplazes, P; Gottstein, B; Teunis, P; Van der Giessen, J (2012). Mapping the increasing risk of human alveolar echinococcosis in Limburg, The Netherlands. Epidemiology and Infection, 140(5):867-871.

Abstract

The parasite Echinococcus multilocularis was first detected in The Netherlands in 1996 and repeated studies have shown that the parasite subsequently spread in the local population of foxes in the province of Limburg. It was not possible to quantify the human risk of alveolar echinococcosis because no relationship between the amount of parasite eggs in the environment and the probability of infection in humans was known. Here, we used the spread of the parasite in The Netherlands as a predictor, together with recently published historical records of the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in Switzerland, to achieve a relative quantification of the risk. Based on these analyses, the human risk in Limburg was simulated and up to three human cases are predicted by 2018. We conclude that the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in The Netherlands might have changed from a period of negligible risk in the past to a period of increasing risk in the forthcoming years.

Abstract

The parasite Echinococcus multilocularis was first detected in The Netherlands in 1996 and repeated studies have shown that the parasite subsequently spread in the local population of foxes in the province of Limburg. It was not possible to quantify the human risk of alveolar echinococcosis because no relationship between the amount of parasite eggs in the environment and the probability of infection in humans was known. Here, we used the spread of the parasite in The Netherlands as a predictor, together with recently published historical records of the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in Switzerland, to achieve a relative quantification of the risk. Based on these analyses, the human risk in Limburg was simulated and up to three human cases are predicted by 2018. We conclude that the epidemiology of alveolar echinococcosis in The Netherlands might have changed from a period of negligible risk in the past to a period of increasing risk in the forthcoming years.

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Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:05 Vetsuisse Faculty > Institute of Parasitology
04 Faculty of Medicine > Institute of Parasitology
Dewey Decimal Classification:570 Life sciences; biology
610 Medicine & health
600 Technology
Language:English
Date:2012
Deposited On:23 Nov 2012 14:10
Last Modified:26 Jul 2018 16:39
Publisher:Cambridge University Press
Series Name:Epidemiology and Infection
ISSN:0950-2688
OA Status:Green
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268811001221
PubMed ID:21733269

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