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Predation effects on mean time to extinction under demographic stochasticity

Palamara, Gian Marco; Delius, Gustav W; Smith, Matthew J; Petchey, Owen L (2013). Predation effects on mean time to extinction under demographic stochasticity. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 334:61-70.

Abstract

Methods for predicting the probability and timing of a species' extinction are typically based on single species population dynamics. Assessments of extinction risk often lack effects of interspecific interactions. We study a birth and death process in which the death rate includes an effect of predation. Predation is included via a general nonlinear expression for the functional response of predation to prey density. We investigate the effects of the foraging parameters (e.g. attack rate and handling time) on the mean time to extinction. Mean time to extinction varies by orders of magnitude when we alter the foraging parameters, even when we exclude the effects of these parameters on the equilibrium population size. Conclusions are robust to assumptions about initial conditions and variable predator abundance. These findings clearly show that accounting for the nature of interspecific interactions is likely to be critically important when estimating extinction risk.

Additional indexing

Item Type:Journal Article, refereed, original work
Communities & Collections:07 Faculty of Science > Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies
Dewey Decimal Classification:570 Life sciences; biology
590 Animals (Zoology)
Scopus Subject Areas:Physical Sciences > Statistics and Probability
Physical Sciences > Modeling and Simulation
Life Sciences > General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Life Sciences > General Immunology and Microbiology
Life Sciences > General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
Physical Sciences > Applied Mathematics
Language:English
Date:2013
Deposited On:22 Jan 2014 12:15
Last Modified:30 Oct 2024 04:36
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0022-5193
OA Status:Closed
Publisher DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.06.007

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