We empirically investigate how performance expectations affect top manager replacements. We do so by approximating performance expectations based on professional bookmaker betting odds in professional soccer, thus capturing the effect on the dismissal probability of team coaches. Controlling for team performance and unobserved team heterogeneity, we show that a one-standard-deviation increase of performance expectations nearly doubles the coach’s dismissal probability. Our study represents a strong test for the impact of performance expectations on managerial replacements because accurate performance measures are available at frequent intervals in the controlled field environment of professional soccer. The limitations of transferability are also discussed.