Publication: Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change
Date
Date
Date
Citations
Grossmann, I., Rotella, A., Hutcherson, C. A., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. E. W., Achter, S., Dhami, M. K., Guo, X. E., Kara-Yakoubian, M., Mandel, D. R., Raes, L., Tay, L., Vie, A., Wagner, L., Adamkovic, M., Arami, A., Arriaga, P., Bandara, K., Baník, G., … et al. (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 484–501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
Abstract
Abstract
Abstract
How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for
Additional indexing
Creators (Authors)
- Grossmann, Igor
- Rotella, Amanda
- Hutcherson, Cendri A
- Sharpinskyi, Konstantyn
- Varnum, Michael E W
- Achter, Sebastian
- Dhami, Mandeep K
- Guo, Xinqi Evie
- Kara-Yakoubian, Mane
- Mandel, David R
- Raes, Louis
- Tay, Louis
- Vie, Aymeric
- Adamkovic, Matus
- Arami, Arash
- Arriaga, Patrícia
- Bandara, Kasun
- Baník, Gabriel
- Bartoš, František
- Baskin, Ernest
- Bergmeir, Christoph
- Białek, Michał
- Børsting, Caroline K
- Browne, Dillon T
- Caruso, Eugene M
- Chen, Rong
- Chie, Bin-Tzong
- Chopik, William J
Volume
Volume
Volume
Number
Number
Number
Page range/Item number
Page range/Item number
Page range/Item number
Page end
Page end
Page end
Item Type
Item Type
Item Type
Keywords
Language
Language
Language
Publication date
Publication date
Publication date
Date available
Date available
Date available
ISSN or e-ISSN
ISSN or e-ISSN
ISSN or e-ISSN
OA Status
OA Status
OA Status
Publisher DOI
Citations
Grossmann, I., Rotella, A., Hutcherson, C. A., Sharpinskyi, K., Varnum, M. E. W., Achter, S., Dhami, M. K., Guo, X. E., Kara-Yakoubian, M., Mandel, D. R., Raes, L., Tay, L., Vie, A., Wagner, L., Adamkovic, M., Arami, A., Arriaga, P., Bandara, K., Baník, G., … et al. (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 484–501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
