Probabilistic conditional reasoning: Disentangling form and content with the dual-source model

Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Beller, Sieghard

doi:10.1016/j.cogpsych.2016.06.005

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Singmann, H., Klauer, K. C., & Beller, S. (2016). Probabilistic conditional reasoning: Disentangling form and content with the dual-source model. Cognitive Psychology, 88, 61–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2016.06.005

Abstract

The present research examines descriptive models of probabilistic conditional reasoning, that is of reasoning from uncertain conditionals with contents about which reasoners have rich background knowledge. According to our dual-source model, two types of information shape such reasoning: knowledge-based information elicited by the contents of the material and content-independent information derived from the form of inferences. Two experiments implemented manipulations that selectively influenced the model parameters for the knowledge-